The final week of the 2011 NFL regular season is here, and with its arrival, teams are frantically attempting to earn playoff bids, homefield advantage or first round byes.  This also means a hectic time for predicting spreads, as some teams with secure bids will rest players, others will not, and on the opposite end, there are the eliminated teams testing out younger players or potentially jockeying for draft picks.  To some degree, Week 17 can fall more under guesswork than strategy.

Heading into the final week, a handful of games will be under the spotlight more than others, specifically the matchups between the Giants and Cowboys, Titans and Texans, as well as the Ravens and Bengals.  The AFC West and NFC East divisions are also up for grabs, and let’s not forget that the Andrew Luck sweepstakes is yet to be determined.

Over in the “Pick Your Knows” department, Week 16 brought a .500-record to my plate, and hopefully I can end the regular season on a high note, even though this year’s numbers will not match that of last year.

Last Week: 8-8

This Season: 123-117

Last Season: 144-112

With a win over the Cowboys this week, Eli Manning and the Giants would celebrate an NFC East title

It’s once again time to “Pick Your Knows” – the only time it’s not a disgusting habit – and here are Week 17’s scheduled games (with spreads as they appear through CBSSports Fantasy).

Pick Your Knows: 2011 NFL Week 17 Picks Against the Spread

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (+1.5)

Reports state that Green Bay head coach Mike McCarthy has said that Aaron Rodgers is unlikely to play the entire game, therefore, expect to see Matt Flynn at QB.  With the Packers already clinching homefield, it’s likely this could be the case for a number of Green Bay’s starters.  The Lions have also clinched a playoff berth, so it’s a bit tricky to predict how this game could go.  With a win, the Lions have a chance to snag the fifth seed in the NFC.  Meanwhile, the Packers are playing at home, where Detroit hasn’t won since 1991.  Calvin Johnson is dealing with a sore Achilles, which should be of concern.  Green Bay will rest its starters some, but McCarthy won’t say just how much.  Detroit might be the safe pick here, but I think Green Bay builds a solid lead at the half, goes to its backups, but Calvin Johnson is hampered, gets rested, and Detroit falls short.  The Packers find a way to get to 15-1, but barely.

KP’s Pick: Green Bay

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (+2.5)

Here’s a game with playoff implications.  The Titans can clinch a playoff berth with a win, plus some help.  The Texans are already in and have no way in which to earn a first round bye.  Andre Johnson will again be limited for the Texans, and the Houston offense has missed a step due to its injuries, scoring 20 points or less in each of its last five games.  When Andre Johnson plays, opposing defenses need to focus less on the Houston run game, but the question remains, how much will he play?  The Texans clearly want to build momentum heading into the playoffs, but will want its parts intact come playoff time.  Mike Munchak has forced aside the Penn State rumors, and should have the Titans motivated.  With a playoff chance in sight, I like veteran Matt Hasselbeck and the Titans to find a way to eek out a close win on the road.

KP’s Pick: Tennessee

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5)

The Colts have won two in a row, and with another win, could miss out on the top pick in the draft.  Indy coaches and players have also said that they will be playing for a win on Sunday.  Aside from its blowout win over the Bucs in Week 14, the Jags have mostly struggled on offense over the last two months.  In fact, Jacksonville is dead last in the NFL in total offense.  The Colts, meanwhile, have managed to play much better with Dan Orlovsky at quarterback, and have managed three wins against the spread over the last three weeks.  With a Jacksonville offense that’s struggling as much as it is, this spread seems a bit high for a Colts team that is moving the ball more efficiently.  Take Indy and the points.

KP’s Pick: Indianapolis

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-1.5)

The Jets can still make the playoffs, but will need help.  Rex Ryan is clearly under scrutiny, as is quarterback Mark Sanchez and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer.  The Jets defense should be taking heat, too, because as a group, they have also struggled most of the year.  Miami was a surprise favorite in Rex Ryan’s eyes, but the Dolphins are at home, and have played solid football over the last two months.  However, Reggie Bush has been ruled out with a knee injury, and has clearly been one of the reasons for Miami’s offensive success.  The Dolphins will score points, but the Jets are clearly motivated with a playoff berth on the line, and desperately want to prove its critics wrong.  New York has found a way to eek its way into the playoffs over the last few years, and it is hard to imagine Rex Ryan not finding a way to at least give his team a chance to earn a berth again.  Jets win on the road.

KP’s Pick: New York Jets

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (+0.5)

This could be a brutal game to watch, what with all the key injuries on both sides.  Adrian Peterson is out for the year with a knee injury, while both Jay Cutler and Matt Forte have been shut down for the Bears.  Christian Ponder is likely to start for the Vikings.  The Minnesota defense has given up 24 or more points in each of its last four games, all losses.  Meanwhile, the Chicago offense has managed just 47 points over its last four games, also all losses.  The result is clearly a tossup game between two struggling football teams.  In a matchup like this, I look to sacks, as well as the home team.  The Bears have allowed the 6^th most sacks in the NFL, while the Vikings have the 4^th most sacks.  That, plus Minnesota is the home team – so, in what could be the most painful game to watch the week, I’m taking the Vikes to finish 2011 on a high note.

KP’s Pick: Minnesota

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-12.5)

KP expects Brady and the Pats to bounce back versus the Bills in Week 17

The Patriots will clinch homefield advantage in the AFC with a win.  After tossing four interceptions versus the Bills earlier in the season, expect Tom Brady to be extra motivated to take his frustrations out on the Buffalo defense.  The Bills continue to deal with injuries, losing two starting offensive linemen last week.  Combine that with the other injuries, and Buffalo is clearly overmatched in this game.  Playing with a purpose, seeking revenge and doing so at home, it’s hard to not see the Patriots – even with its struggling defense – managing to earn the top seed in the AFC, and in grand fashion.  New Engalnd covers in a high scoring affair, knocking off the Bills by at least two touchdowns.

KP’s Pick: New England

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-7.5)

The Drew Brees record has been reached and many are questioning how much time the New Orleans starters will see the field.  Yet, while San Francisco faces the hapless Rams, the Saints still have an outside shot to earn a first round bye.  Both the Niners and Saints play at 1pm, so the results will not be in, and I fully expect Sean Payton to not hold back on Sunday.  Of course, the San Francisco lead could be big, and maybe New Orleans will begin to pull players.  Carolina has also been red hot, and winning four of five.  But while Newton, Smith and the Carolina offense have been giving opponents fits, the Saints have been equally as dominant on turf and at home.  Playing at home and seeking a first round bye, the Saints could easily pull away.  If the Rams stick around long enough against the Niners, I see the Saints covering at home.

KP’s Pick: New Orleans

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5)

Both teams are out of the playoff picture.  Andy Reid says that the starters will play, but some have speculated that the Eagles may play some of their young secondary.  Meanwhile, the Redskins have played better over the last month or more.  In particular, Washington has seen solid play from two rookie running backs, Roy Helu and Evan Royster.  Royster will likely see the field more this week, and could see success against a run defense that has struggled at times.  With the way that each of these teams has performed recently, coupled with the likelihood that some backups could see the field, I’m banking on a game that will remain close throughout, and likely finish with a result of a touchdown or less.  Take the ‘Skins and the points.

KP’s Pick: Washington

San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams (+10.5)

The 49ers will earn a first round bye with a win, and facing the struggling Rams, it’s a good bet that it will happen.  San Francisco sports the fourth ranked overall defense and the top rush defense in the NFL.  Therefore, count on the Rams struggling in the run game, which means there could be a need to focus on the pass game.  But with Sam Bradford likely to be out, St. Louis could struggle there, too.  In Week 13, the Niners blanked the Rams 26-0, and St. Louis has managed just 26 points over the last four games.  With San Francisco seeking a first round bye, combined with the Rams’ struggles, it seems a safe bet that the Niners will cover.

KP’s Pick: San Francisco

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)

Pete Carroll says the Seahawks will play everyone and that nothing will change even with the team having no hope of the playoffs this season.  Arizona may be without Kevin Kolb again, and that means, it could be Skelton to rely on.  Seattle has played much better over the last few months, and has been led by Marshawn Lynch in the run game.  Arizona is ranked 18^th against the run, while only forcing three fumbles and allowing 14 total touchdowns.  With that in mind, expect Lynch to have some success, and bank on the Seahawks to complete its strong late season run with another victory.

KP’s Pick: Seattle

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-13.5)

Atlanta and Detroit are jockeying for playoff position, and by gametime, the Falcons will know the result of the Lions-Packers game, therefore knowing what they need to do in regards to seed.  If the Lions can manage to knock off a Packers team that will be playing a lot of its backups, then the pressure will be on Atlanta to get a win.  The Bucs have been horrid over the last few months, losing its last four games by 16 or more points.  Matt Ryan and the Falcons have plenty of success playing at home, and as bad as the Bucs have been, it’s hard to bet against the Falcons to win big, what with a higher playoff seed likely at stake.  Falcons cover.

KP’s Pick: Atlanta

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5)

Flacco and the Ravens can earn a first round bye with a win against the Bengals

This is the key game of the week, with both the Bengals and Ravens fighting for playoff berths or playoff position.  The Ravens can earn a first round bye with a win.  Homefield advantage is still a possibility, but the Ravens will know if that’s obtainable considering that the Patriots play an early game.  Cincinnati can snag a playoff berth with a win, and the Bengals also have a home sellout for the first time in a while.  The Ravens won the first matchup in a high-scoring affair during Week 11.  Light rain and cold temperatures are expected on Sunday, and that could mean a low-scoring game that is more focused in the trenches.  With a weapon like Ray Rice and an aggressive defense, I give the edge to the Ravens against rookies Dalton and Green, who have not been put in this situation before.  Baltimore covers, but barely.

KP’s Pick: Baltimore

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (+6.5)

Like the Ravens and Patriots, the Steelers have a chance at a first round bye and homefield advantage.  However, the Steelers need help for either to happen.  In order to win the division or earn a bye, the Steelers will need a win plus a loss by the Ravens and/or Patriots.  Meanwhile, Ben Roethlisberger is a good bet to play, depending on his ankle injury.  Colt McCoy is likely out again with a concussion.  The Browns kept it close with the Steelers a few weeks back, and this week have the homefield advantage.  But the Steelers have a chance at a bye, and with Baltimore playing at the same time Pittsburgh will likely not know its result.  Expect the Steelers to put the foot on the gas, and cover on the road against the Browns.

KP’s Pick: Pittsburgh

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-3.5)

This is a huge matchup that will decide the AFC West, with the Broncos earning a playoff berth and the division title with a win.  Meanwhile, Kyle Orton will start for the Chiefs and get a shot against his former team, and against former teammate Tim Tebow.  Per Kansas City interim coach Romeo Crennel, the Chiefs will not lie down for anyone.  Don’t underestimate the ability for a person to get revenge on a former team.  The Chiefs blew a late lead to the Broncos in Week 10, which means it’s not just Orton that wants revenge.  With all this in mind, I expect the Chiefs to spoil Denver’s day.

KP’s Pick: Kansas City

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (-2.5)

Call this the AFC West division decision Part II, as the Raiders can earn a playoff berth with a win and a Broncos loss.  Both teams are playing the late game, so neither will know an earlier result.  The Chargers hope to ruin its rivals’ hopes, and San Diego clearly has plenty of talent to do that.  Oakland has really struggled over the last month plus, only managing two wins over struggling offensive teams, the Chiefs and Bears.  San Diego has a potent offense and is motivated to eliminate the Raiders.  While I see the Chiefs spoiling Denver’s day, I think San Diego will do the same, meaning that Tebow and the Broncos still make the playoffs.  San Diego wins outright.

KP’s Pick: San Diego

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-2.5)

For Dallas and New York, the playoffs start this weekend, with the winner of this game taking the NFC East division and getting into the playoffs as the #4 seed.  For this game, injuries are the key element.  Tony Romo appears ready to play, and will need to stay healthy to give Dallas a chance.  Hakeem Nicks has been hampered by injuries this week, but hopes to see significant playing time on Sunday night.  In a tossup match for the division, I look to the two quarterbacks, with Eli Manning managing a number of fourth quarter comebacks, while Romo has struggled late on occasion during the season, and is dealing with an injury.  That’s why I’m taking the Giants to knock off the Cowboys, reaching the playoffs.

KP’s Pick: New York Giants

Last week’s NFL schedule was highlighted by some major surprises, most notably the Indianapolis Colts earning a first win of the season, coupled with the Green Bay Packers being dealt a first loss at the hands of the Kansas City Chiefs, a team that had just fired its head coach.

Heading into Week 16, the playoff races continue to roll along with no seeds set in stone, and two divisions – the AFC West and NFC East – almost entirely up for grabs.

Over in the “Pick Your Knows” department, it was a solid showing for me during Week 15, as I posted eleven wins against the spread.  However, I remain far behind last yaer’s pace.

Last Week: 11-5

This Season: 115-109

Last Season: 144-112

Santonio Holmes hopes to celebrate this weekend against the New York Giants

It’s once again time to “Pick Your Knows” – the only time it’s not a disgusting habit – and here are Week 16’s scheduled games (with spreads as they appear through CBSSports Fantasy).

Pick Your Knows: 2011 NFL Week 16 Picks Against the Spread

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (+6.5)

Houston’s injury report is more than two-dozen players deep, including stars such as Andre Johnson, who has already been ruled out of Thursday’s game.  The Texans are playoff bound, but a shot at a bye is still within reach.  Meanwhile, the Colts finally got into the win column last week.  Houston is 6^th in turnover margin and the Colts are 27^th.  The Texans still have a potent rushing attack, and Indy won’t be able to match the high-octane offense that the Panthers threw at the Texans last week.  Even with all the injuries, all signs point to the Texans rebounding with a victory.  Houston covers fairly easily.

KP’s Pick: Houston

Update: In a shocking development, the Colts upset the Texans 19-16 on Thursday night, making it Indy’s second straight victory, while also potentially flushing away Houston’s chance at a first round bye.  Not shocking is my continued abysmal picking for Thursday games this year.

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-13.5)

The Browns have been great against the pass, but the team has injuries in the secondary, most notably Joe Haden who appeared on this week’s injury report with a thigh injury.  Anquan Boldin is out until the playoffs, but Baltimore still has plenty of weapons to throw at the Browns.  Colt McCoy is unlikely to play and Baltimore’s second ranked run defense could keep Peyton Hillis and the run game from doing any damage.  Playing at home, and likely angry from last week’s embarrassing loss to the Chargers, the Ravens rebound against its division rival and cover at home, mostly thanks to a strong performance by Ray Rice and the Baltimore defense.

KP’s Pick: Baltimore

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (+2.5)

Tim Tebow and the Broncos look to bounce back against the Bills this week

Here it is once again, Tim Tebow on the road in a tight spread, while playing in a game with key playoff implications, at least for the Broncos.  The biggest key you need to know is that Denver is mainly a run first team when Tebow is under center.  The Buffalo defense is currently ranked 29^th in the NFL against the run, giving up nearly 140 yards on the ground per game.  With this in mind, it’s hard to not expect the Broncos to run wild, even on the road in a hostile environment.  Denver covers in another wild Tebow finish.

KP’s Pick: Denver

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-7.5)

The Bucs are falling apart, while the Panthers continue to struggle at times on defense, yet have enough on offense to outscore teams and force them into a shootout.  Tampa Bay could have some success against a suspect Carolina defense, but this is a Bucs team that has lost three straight by double digits and eight straight overall.  One of those losses includes a 38-19 blowout at the hands of the Panthers.  Carolina seems like a safe pick to win, especially after taking three of their last four and getting a struggling Tampa Bay team at home.  The question remains as to whether the Panthers can knock the Bucs off by more than a touchdown?  My gut has been wrong a lot this year, but I’m going with Tampa Bay and the points.  Panthers win by a TD.

KP’s Pick: Tampa Bay

Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5)

The Cardinals have allowed 47 sacks this season, the second most in the NFL.  The Cincinnati defense has managed 39 sacks this season, the fourth most in the NFL.  Therefore, quarterback pressure will be key in this game, with the statistical edge clearly going to the home team Bengals.  Kevin Kolb will likely be a game-time decision, and with him out, the Cardinals are likely to take a hit on offense.  With the Bengals needing wins and playing at home, my bet is on Cincinnati finding a way to get in the win column.  Bengals cover…barely.

KP’s Pick: Cincinnati

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (+1.5)

The Raiders continue to falter and deal with key injuries.  Kansas City knocked the Packers from the ranks of the unbeaten last week, and remains a team that’s in a division chase.  Kyle Orton was his usual effective self last week against Green Bay, and will see the field again this week.  Darren McFadden is out and Michael Bush has been limited in practice, so expect the Raiders to again be one-dimensional.  Playing at home and riding last week’s momentum, I see Orton and the Chiefs getting it done yet again, especially since Oakland continues to deal with injuries.

KP’s Pick: Kansas City

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-9.5)

The Patriots got the country to stop talking about Tim Tebow for a few days, but that doesn’t mean that New England’s defense still isn’t very suspect.  The Dolphins have played much better over the last month, and is definitely not the same team that got blown out by the Patriots at the beginning of the season.  Miami has played well against the run, while also putting up a strong run game led by Reggie Bush.  Matt Moore and Brandon Marshall should also be able to shred up a weak New England secondary.  Miami has enough to keep the game close throughout.  New England wins, but by less than ten points.  Therefore, take Miami and the points.

KP’s Pick: Miami

New York Giants at New York Jets (-2.5)

There are two stories with this game, one being the trash talk by Rex Ryan coupled with the refusal for Coughlin to get into that, as well as the fact that these two big city squads are fighting for a playoff spot with two weeks to play.  The Giants should be ashamed after last week’s performance, and should at least see an offensive recovery against a Jets defense that is painfully overrated.  Eli Manning has been great all season, and was equally as horrible last weekend.  With the NFC East still up for grabs, I’m banking on Eli and the Giants to bounce back and knock off the Jets.  Giants win in a close one.

KP’s Pick: New York Giants

St. Louis Rams at Pittsburgh Steelers (-14.5)

Ben Roethlisberger was clearly hampered by his ankle injury last week, and struggled against the 49ers.  This week, he may not play at all.  Without Big Ben, the Pittsburgh offense could see a significant decline in performance.  Painfully, the Rams aren’t much better offensively, which makes this a tricky game to call, even if a guy like Charlie Batch starts.  The Rams will likely start Kellen Clemens and leave Sam Bradford out.  Pittsburgh should win this game by at least two scores, but I’m banking on a special teams play or a freak touchdown for the Rams, something that can keep this game at two touchdowns or less.  With Big Ben hampered, rain in the forecast and a spread this high, I’m taking the Rams and the points.

KP’s Pick: St. Louis

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-7.5)

Both Chris Johnson and Maurice Jones-Drew are listed this week with ankle injuries, and therefore, one or both teams could be hampered in the run game.  Each is expected to play.  Per USA Today, taking the under has been the right call in the last eight games that Tennessee has played in.  That stat would signal a low-scoring dogfight to emerge in this game, especially considering that the Jags are not going to blow anyone out offensively.  In a low scoring affair, it’s a good bet that the game will stay close throughout.  Take the Jags and the points.

KP’s Pick: Jacksonville

Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins (-6.5)

The Redskins continue to play better, completing a sweep of the Giants last week.  Washington has been much improved and healthier on both offense and defense.  Adrian Peterson is reportedly near 100 percent for the Vikings, and could see a workload increase this week.  Last week, I said the Saints would likely score a lot, keeping Peterson off the field.  The Redskins do not have the offensive firepower to make this happen, and the Vikings also have the talent in the trenches to force Rex Grossman mistakes.  The ‘Skins have the edge at home, but don’t expect a victory by a touchdown or more.  This game will be close.  Take the Vikes and the points.

KP’s Pick: Minnesota

San Diego Chargers at Detroit Lions (-2.5)

Ryan Mathews looks to run wild against the Lions this weekend

The Chargers have hit their typical late season surge, with three straight impressive victories, highlighted by a blowout victory of the Ravens last week.  The Lions are holding on to the 6^th seed, while San Diego still has a shot at the division title.  I like San Diego’s balance with Ryan Mathews, plus Philip Rivers and all the passing weapons.  If Vincent Jackson is healthy, that adds one more piece.  San Diego will just need to find out a way to keep Calvin Johnson in check.  I’m going with the hot hand, and taking the Chargers to get a key road victory.

KP’s Pick: San Diego

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-2.5)

The Eagles have been red hot since Michael Vick returned, and somehow still have a chance to win the NFC East division, though help will be needed.  First and foremost, to stay in it, the Eagles will need to knock off the Cowboys.  Philadelphia has been beaten badly at times on defense, but more so against the run.  The Dallas run game is missing something without DeMarco Murray, and the Eagles have the extra dimension with both Vick and McCoy.  Playing for its playoff lives, Philadelphia finds a way to make the NFC East even more interesting, and knocks off the hated Cowboys on the road.

KP’s Pick: Philadelphia

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (+2.5)

Marshawn Lynch has been carrying Seattle’s offense, and posting consistently solid numbers in the run game.  San Francisco has the best rush defense in the NFL.  The way I see it, Lynch could have a decent game, but nothing spectacular, and the Seahawks may need to instead rely on the home crowd, combined with the play of Tarvaris Jackson and the pass game.  Seattle plays well in front of the 12^th man, but no one can trust the team’s pass offense.  The Niners still have a shot at a first-round bye, and that motivation alone should get San Francisco a key road victory.  Niners cover.

KP’s Pick: San Francisco

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-13.5)

The Packers suffered its first loss of the season last week, and it is clear that having Greg Jennings out of the lineup was a hit taken by Green Bay.  However, the Bears have really struggled without having a healthy Jay Cutler and Matt Forte in their lineup, so points could also be a rarity for the Bears.  Green Bay may not be as potent without Jennings, but the Bears have done very little without Cutler and Forte.  Playing at home and wanting to lock up homefield throughout, the Packers take out their frustrations on division rival Chicago, and cover at home.

KP’s Pick: Green Bay

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-6.5)

Michael Turner continues to sit out practices as he deals with nagging injuries.  Last week, the Falcons trounced the Jags, and this week get the division rival Saints, who have been clicking offensively on all cylinders, especially on turf.  The home crowd will be extra amped up playing on this post-Christmas Monday night game, and as legit as the Saints have been at home and on the turf, it’s hard to not pick against them to get involved in a shootout.  Atlanta is a talented bunch, but I’m banking on the Saints to manage a touchdown victory in the dome.

KP’s Pick: New Orleans

Three weeks remain in the regular season and while the Packers continue to roll through the NFC with an unblemished 13-0 mark, the AFC’s top seed is very much up for grabs.  Heading into the weekend, a number of key teams look to gain an edge, with the Texans taking on the Panthers, the Steelers facing the 49ers, Ravens traveling to San Diego and the Patriots butting heads with Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos.

Over in the “Pick Your Knows” department, I will need to finish the last three weeks 40-8 against the spread in order to match last season’s record.  Highly unlikely, but if anything, it would be nice to finish strong over the season’s final three weeks.

Last Week: 8-8

This Season: 104-104

Last Season: 144-112

Will Ray Rice be able to run wild against the San Diego Chargers this weekend?

It’s once again time to “Pick Your Knows” – the only time it’s not a disgusting habit – and here are Week 15’s scheduled games (with spreads as they appear through CBSSports Fantasy).

Pick Your Knows: 2011 NFL Week 15 Picks Against the Spread

Jacksonville Jaguars at Atlanta Falcons (-11.5)

This game features a tricky line considering the recent performance of these two teams.  The Jags have struggled offensively all season, yet exploded on the scoreboard last week against the Bucs.  The Falcons clearly have more talent and play much better in front of the home crowd, yet injuries have hampered them offensively.  One of the main keys to this game will be Atlanta’s fifth-ranked run defense against Maurice Jones Drew.  If MJD can post some solid numbers, this game could be closer than expected.  If not, then it’s a blowout.  Overall, the spread scares me, so I’m going to roll with the conservative pick.

KP’s Pick: Jacksonville

Update: Another Thursday blunder, as Atlanta thrashed the Jags 41-14.  Worse, MJD ran for 112 yards, with a 6.6 average, making me wrong in that department, too.

Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6.5)

Tampa Bay has really struggled, and the team is likely in turmoil after rumors have escaped that Raheem Morris was almost fired earlier in the week.  The Cowboys have lost two heartbreakers in a row, and now find themselves in a tight division battle with the Giants.  Dallas also has lost DeMarco Murray for the year, and could see a dip in the effectiveness of its running game.  But with Dallas’ pass weapons, coupled with Tampa Bay’s current issues, it’s still hard to bet against the Cowboys.  Dallas covers on the road.

KP’s Pick: Dallas

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-0.5)

Matt Moore has been battling an injury this week, but did practice.  Moore has played solid football and been a big reason for why the Dolphins have been more competitive.  Better yet, the Miami defense has played well, specifically against the run.  The Bills have been more one-dimensional since Fred Jackson went down, and with how solid Miami has been against the run, expect Ryan Fitzpatrick to need to carry Buffalo’s offense.  The game forecast is windy with light rain, which could hinder the pass game, and that’s why I’m taking the Dolphins.

KP’s Pick: Miami

Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears (-4.5)

The Bears continue to struggle without Jay Cutler and Matt Forte carrying the offense.  Seattle has played much better over the last few weeks.  The Seahawks offense will likely face challenges against a more talented Chicago defense, especially when playing on the road.  But again, the Bears have not been able to establish a consistent offense, and no matter who is running the offense, it’s hard to imagine the Bears winning this game by five points or more.  That’s why Seattle is the clear selection here.

KP’s Pick: Seattle

Carolina Panthers at Houston Texans (-6.5)

The Texans continue to win games, no matter who has to leave with an injury.  This week, defensive coordinator Wade Phillips is on medical leave and star wide receiver Andre Johnson is likely out again.  Houston has an explosive running attack, and will likely expose a Carolina defense that has been struggling often during the season.  T.J. Yates has been effective as the Houston starting quarterback, leading the Texans to a last second win over the Bengals last week.  I expect the Texans to win, but with Phillips, out coupled with the talent and mobility of Cam Newton, I’m banking on the Panthers to keep this game inside a touchdown.

KP’s Pick: Carolina

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (+6.5)

The winless Colts are down to just three more chances to avoid matching Detroit’s 0-16 season from a few years ago. Indy’s offense has showed a little bit of life in recent weeks, but the defense continues to get owned.  Tennessee lost Matt Hasselbeck last week due to injury, but he practiced this week and could be back on the field.  Chris Johnson also will likely have success running on the Colts, and a touchdown victory seems like a safe pick.  Titans cover.

KP’s Pick: Tennessee

Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs (+13.5)

Clay Matthews and the Packers will most certainly cause headaches for the Kansas City offense on Sunday

Top receiver Greg Jennings will be out with a knee sprain, but the Packers have enough weapons that they likely won’t skip a beat without him.  James Jones will be called upon to take his place, and when Jones is catching the ball, he’s deadly – but that doesn’t always happen.  Meanwhile, Romeo Crennel is taking over as interim coach in Kansas City, and he’s stated that if healthy, Kyle Orton will get the start.  If not, it will be Ricky Stanzi.  Orton could move the ball, but I wouldn’t trust Stanzi in his first ever NFL start.  Either way, with the Chiefs in clear transition mode, it’s hard to bet against the Packers, even when favored by nearly two TD’s.

KP’s Pick: Green Bay

New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings (+7.5)

All the key offensive pieces are practicing this week for the Vikings, most notably Adrian Peterson.  Adding AP in the lineup at home means that the Vikings may be able to stick around for a good portion of the game.  The biggest stat to note in this game is the Vikings being the 26^th ranked pass defense, allowing 26 passing TD’s, while only managing 6 INT’s.  It’s a good bet that Brees and New Orleans’ top ranked offense will torch the Vikings early, and if so, that will limit the opportunities that Adrian Peterson will get.  With all this in mind, Minnesota likely will be unable to keep up.  Saints cover on the road, especially playing on turf similar to their own.

KP’s Pick: New Orleans

Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-7.5)

The Redskins have been effective on offense over the last few weeks, and the Giants’ secondary has suffered through a number of injuries, and is at times, quite beatable.  Roy Helu has also been the most effective rookie running back this season, and continues to provide balance to the offense.  The Giants have a potent offense of their own, and playing at home, will likely be able to outlast the Redskins, especially playing to stay in a tie for the division lead.  However, as solid as the Redskins have been recently, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Washington keep this game at a touchdown or less.  Take the ‘Skins and the points.

KP’s Pick: Washington

Cincinnati Bengals at St. Louis Rams (+5.5)

Sam Bradford continues to struggle and remains hampered by an ankle injury.  The Rams have also struggled on offense, both at home and on the road.  The Bengals are fading as of late, but remain in the playoff chase, but this game should be considered a must win situation.  With the talents that the Bengals have, coupled with the Rams struggles, Cincy is the safe pick to cover.

KP’s Pick: Cincinnati

Detroit Lions at Oakland Raiders (+0.5)

Ndamukong Suh is back from his suspension, and will likely be a factor in the trenches.  The Raiders are fading and will be without Darren McFadden once again, which will leave the offense missing its key piece.  Detroit, while facing discipline issues, remains a potent offensive team, and will likely get Kevin Smith back, who has been the most effective back for Detroit over the last month.  With such offensive weapons, I think the Lions will roll to a road win.

KP’s Pick: Detroit

Cleveland Browns at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5)

The Browns will be without Colt McCoy and will see Seneca Wallace starting at quarterback.  Cleveland’s highly ranked pass defense should be able to keep the Arizona pass offense in check, much like they did last week against the Steelers.  Wallace is a mobile quarterback and will provide a different look, and could strive on Arizona’s field.  The Cardinals will likely focus on getting a solid run game from Beanie Wells, and if they can manage that, this game could be low scoring, or one that features mostly field goals.  With that a good possibility, I’m taking the Browns and the points.

KP’s Pick: Cleveland

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (+6.5)

Will the Tebow miracles continue against Brady and the Patriots? KP says NO.

No one could have predicted that this would be such an intriguing matchup a few months ago, but here it is, as Tim Tebow and his 7-1 record as a starter face off against Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the Patriots.  Clearly, New England’s defense has been beatable, with both the Redskins and Colts were able to move the ball on the Pats over the last few weeks.  However, Tebow has required fourth quarter miracles regularly against opponents that have had either anemic offenses or that were missing key pieces.  This time, if Tebow struggles to move the ball early, the Broncos – even with their talented and much-improved defense – could find themselves in too big of a hole.  With how effective the Patriots have been moving the ball on offense, especially using its two talented tight ends, I see the Tebow run stopping here.  Pats win by double digits.

KP’s Pick: New England

New York Jets at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)

The Eagles got back in the win column last week, with Michael Vick back in the lineup.  Playing at home, the Eagles will have a hostile crowd ready to harass Rex Ryan, Mark Sanchez and the Jets offense.  Shonn Greene has had a solid stretch for the Jets, and the Eagles have been a team that has often struggled against the run.  However, the Jets defense has struggled at times, too.  With many similarities here, plus a desperate need for victories for both teams, I’m sticking with Vick and the home team.  Eagles cover, but barely.

KP’s Pick: Philadelphia

Baltimore Ravens at San Diego Chargers (+2.5)

The Chargers are beginning to make that late season charge that has become all too familiar during the Norv Turner era in San Diego.  The question remains whether the Chargers will be able to handle the talented Ravens, even when playing at home.  San Diego’s offense has flourished over the last few weeks, but not against a team as talented as the Ravens.  In a tossup matchup, I’m taking the Ravens to win by a field goal.

KP’s Pick: Baltimore

Pittsburgh Steelers at San Francisco 49ers (-0.5)

The last time we saw the 49ers take on an AFC North foe was on Thanksgiving night, when San Francisco was owned and dominated by the Ravens.  Baltimore was able to consistently get to Alex Smith all night long, but will the Steelers?  Pittsburgh has 30 sacks on the season, which is the middle of the pack in the NFL.  San Francisco excels against the run, but the Steelers have focused more on the pass game, and had success with it.  Ben Roethlisberger is a question mark heading into the weekend, but in the past, Pittsburgh has proven it can win without him.  In a low scoring game, I’m going with the Steelers, who I think will find a way to match what the Ravens did to the Niners a few weeks back.

KP’s Pick: Pittsburgh

Four weeks remain in the regular season and while the Packers continue to roll through the NFC with an unblemished 12-0 mark, the AFC’s top seed is very much up for grabs.  Heading into the weekend, a number of key teams look to gain an edge, with the Texans taking on the Bengals, the Jets hosting the Chiefs, Ravens hosting the Colts and the Patriots traveling to D.C. to face the Redskins.

Over in the “Pick Your Knows” department, I have posted three consecutive subpar performances.  It’s almost to the point that if you’re a regular reader, you may want to go with the opposite of my selections.  Still, I remain at the .500 mark for the season, and started off this week in the victory column by taking the Bowns.  Here’s hoping that good fortune continues.

Last Week: 6-10

This Season: 96-96

Last Season: 144-112

Tom Brady and the Patriots hope to be celebrating against the Redskins this weekend

It’s once again time to “Pick Your Knows” – the only time it’s not a disgusting habit – and here are Week 14’s scheduled games (with spreads as they appear through CBSSports Fantasy).

Pick Your Knows: 2011 NFL Week 14 Picks Against the Spread

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-13.5)

Peyton Hillis is dealing with a hip injury, but it’s reported that he might play.  Still, traveling to Pittsburgh is always a challenge for the Browns, and it will be again.  The Steelers have been a tricky bunch versus the spread this season, often blowing out the unexpected, while getting into dogfights with cupcake teams.  With the Browns, it’s a weaker opponent, but a division rival.  Most importantly, this matchup faces off the NFL’s top two pass defenses, each allowing under 180 yards per game.  Taking that statistic in mind, plus the division rivalry, I expect a game heavy on the run, resulting in a fairly low scoring, tight matchup – at least, less than two touchdowns.  That’s why I’m taking Cleveland and the points, even on the road at Heinz Field.

KP’s Pick: Cleveland

Update: After a few weeks, I’m finally in the win column for a Thursday game.  The Steelers defeated the Browns 14-3.

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (-16.5)

Last week, I fell into a similar trap, taking the Patriots to cover by three touchdowns against the winless Colts.  New England held a 31-3 lead, but gave up a few late scores, which took the pick out of my hands.  This week, here we are again.  The Ravens are clearly the better team, and will throw a lot of Ray Rice in the direction of the Colts.  However, Baltimore’s defense is much more ferocious than New England’s, and the Ravens are also at home.  I expect a heavy dose of pressure on Orlovsky, leading to numerous turnovers, and a big win for Baltimore.  Ravens cover.

KP’s Pick: Baltimore

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (+2.5)

Cam Newton, Steve Smith and the Panthers offense has been fairly consistent, but also continue to go through growing pains from time to time.  Facing off against a talented bunch like the Falcons will be a major challenge, especially since the Carolina defense has struggled throughout the season.  If Atlanta can put forward a steady attack on both the run and pass game, then it may be too much for Newton to be able to keep up with, especially considering the aforementioned defensive struggles of the Panthers.  Atlanta covers.

KP’s Pick: Atlanta

Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)

Andre Johnson is out this weekend and T.J. Yates is still an inexperienced quarterback that could struggle against a solid defense, such as the one that the Bengals have.  Cincinnati was embarrassed last week against the Steelers, yet remains a team in a playoff chase.  Playing at home this week against a depleted Houston offense, I expect the Bengals to bounce back and come away with an emotional and crucial victory.  Cincy covers.

KP’s Pick: Cincinnati

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-7.5)

The Lions have struggled in recent weeks, specifically with discipline.  The Detroit offense still remains potent, especially when Kevin Smith adds balance in the run game.  However, Smith remains hampered by an ankle injury.  Adrian Peterson is listed as questionable with an ankle injury, and if he gets back into the lineup, it would mean a major difference for the Vikings.  Minnesota’s defense has managed the second most sacks, and could cause problems for Detroit.  Meanwhile, Suh is suspended and the Detroit defensive line may not put much pressure on Christian Ponder (who is also questionable).  Even still, with all this in mind, I expect a one-score game at a touchdown or less, and am taking Minnesota and the points.

KP’s Pick: Minnesota

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+0.5)

With Josh Freeman out last week, the Bucs struggled.  This week, Freeman has been limited in practice and is questionable for Sunday’s game against the Jags.  Jacksonville continues to struggle offensively, so even if Freeman can’t go, this could wind up being a low-scoring game that comes down to a late field goal.  With a tossup spread in mind, I’m picking the team with more talent, and that’s the Bucs.

KP’s Pick: Tampa Bay

Philadelphia Eagles at Miami Dolphins (-2.5)

Michael Vick is expected to return to the Eagles lineup this weekend

This game features two teams headed in opposite directions, and not in the sense that we would have expected when the season begun.  But while the Eagles have struggled and fallen from the playoff chase to some degree, Michael Vick and Jeremy Maclin should return this week.  I missed out on the Dolphins last week as 2 ½ point favorites, and I’m going against them again this week.  Even with Matt Moore and Reggie Bush playing so well, I think with Vick back in the lineup, the Eagles will win this game on the road.

KP’s Pick: Philadelphia

Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets (-8.5)

Kyle Orton is listed as doubtful this week, so I don’t expect him to play and revive the offense at all.  However, after struggling to get to the quarterback for the first two months, the KC defense has performed better in recent weeks, holding the Bears to three points and staying within four points of the Steelers.  This week, the Chiefs travel to New York to take on the Jets, a team that has struggled to pull away from most of its opponents.  The KC defense has 17 INT’s, which is the second most in the NFL, and expect the Chiefs to potentially get a few turnovers that result in this being a one score game.  I’m taking the Chiefs and the points.

KP’s Pick: Kansas City

New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans (+3.5)

The Saints have been on a roll in recent weeks, and that much is clear statistically when you look at the New Orleans offense, ranked first in the NFL, averaging nearly 450 yards per game.  Chris Johnson has finally been taking off for the Titans, and having a good game is likely the only way that the Titans will be able to pull this one off.  New Orleans is in the middle of the pack when it comes to run defense, but Gregg Williams will also likely attempt to blitz and force mistakes in the pass game.  With a spread this low, the Saints are the safe bet to cover.

KP’s Pick: New Orleans

New England Patriots at Washington Redskins (+7.5)

The Redskins have played better over recent weeks, getting more balance on offense with Roy Helu starting at running back, and Santana Moss returning to carry the pass game.  Rex Grossman has also limited his mistakes in recent weeks.  The Redskins should be able to score on New England’s struggling pass defense, but this is not an offense that is able to get into a scoring battle.  Washington also will be missing a few key pieces due to suspension, and with all this in mind, my bet is on Tom Brady and the Pats to cover on the road.

KP’s Pick: New England

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (+3.5)

The Cardinals have had some balance on offense with Beanie Wells excelling and Kevin Kolb returning from injury to play quarterback.  But the key to the Arizona offense is centered around Wells, and a consistent run game.  San Francisco sports the league’s top run defense, allowing just 71.8 yards per game.  It’s a good bet that the 49ers will be able to shut down Wells, forcing Kolb, Fitzgerald and the pass game to try and keep up.  Frank Gore, Alex Smith and the San Francisco offense should do enough to cover on the road.

KP’s Pick: San Francisco

Chicago Bears at Denver Broncos (-3.5)

The Broncos have needed fourth quarter heroics from Tim Tebow on a regular basis, and no matter how much an opponent has struggled, it’s a good bet that it could happen again.  That’s why a 3 ½ point spread is a tough one to choose from.  However, with the Bears being without its two most potent offensive weapons – Jay Cutler and Matt Forte – it’s hard to imagine the Bears being able to stay with any opponent offensively.  Last week, the Bears struggled and managed just three points against the Chiefs.  The Broncos are the safe pick to cover.

KP’s Pick: Denver

Oakland Raiders at Green Bay Packers (-11.5)

Clay Matthews and the undefeated Packers face off against the Raiders this weekend

The Packers have managed 23 INT’s on the year, the most in the NFL, and face off against Carson Palmer.  Palmer should move the ball against the Packers, who also have been vulnerable against the pass, allowing 22 TD’s.  Expect one of those rollercoaster days from Palmer, with a few TD’s and a few picks.  The mistakes will almost certainly lead to points, as Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers are too efficient.  Darren McFadden is out yet again, and with him not playing, the Raiders have missed a step on offense.  Take the Packers to cover at home.

KP’s Pick: Green Bay

Buffalo Bills at San Diego Chargers (-5.5)

Aside from last week’s blowout of the Jaguars, the Chargers have consistently struggled to not just pull away from opponents, but also to collect victories.  Buffalo has played better in recent weeks, but still lacks a consistent run game since Fred Jackson suffered a season-ending injury.  Still, Ryan Fitzpatrick and the pass game should find ways to move the ball on the Chargers, even when playing on the road.  San Diego needs wins to stay in the playoff chase, but don’t expect the Chargers to pull away from Buffalo.

KP’s Pick: Buffalo

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5)

The Cowboys and Giants face off in a pivotal NFC East matchup that will have a major say in who wins the division this season.  Dallas is dealing with some injuries to its wide receivers again, Both Laurent Robinson and Miles Austin are questionable, and if they are out, the Cowboys could suffer a hit on its offensive productivity.  Meanwhile, the Giants will likely get Mario Manningham back, and I’m banking on at least a field goal game.

KP’s Pick: New York Giants

St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)

The last time these teams faced off, the Seahawks dominated on the road.  This week, Seattle is at home, where they play even better football.  Sam Bradford is questionable heading into Monday night, and it’s a good possibility that he may not play.  The Rams have struggled to stop teams, as well as move the football on a consistent basis.  With Bradford and Chris Long both up in the air, I’m banking on the Seahawks to find a way to win at home by a touchdown.  Seattle covers in a fairly low-scoring game.

KP’s Pick: Seattle

Another week in the books and the Green Bay Packers are still undefeated.  This week, the Packers travel to the Big Apple to take on the Giants, a team that’s spiraling in the wrong direction, especially after last week’s lopsided loss to the Saints.

Over in the “Pick Your Knows” department, I have fallen on my face for the second consecutive week, failing to reach the .500-mark.  Here’s hoping that I can finally bounce back as we heads into the final weeks of the regular season.

Last Week: 7-9

This Season: 90-86

Last Season: 144-112

It’s once again time to “Pick Your Knows” – the only time it’s not a disgusting habit – and here are Week 13’s scheduled games (with spreads as they appear through CBSSports Fantasy).

Aaron Rodgers and the undefeated Packers head to New York to take on the Giants

Pick Your Knows: 2011 NFL Week 13 Picks Against the Spread

Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks (+2.5)

Michael Vick and Jeremy Maclin are out again for the Eagles.  Two weeks ago, that didn’t matter versus the Giants.  Last week, it did against the Patriots.  This week, Seattle’s offense is far less superior to the previous two opponents – and that’s especially the case now that Sidney Rice is out for the year.  Seattle has been solid against the run, but last week, they struggled against Roy Helu and the Redskins.  Facing off against LeSean McCoy will be an even bigger task.  With this in mind, I’m taking the Eagles.

KP’s Pick: Philadelphia

Update: The Eagles tank again, falling to Seattle 31-14.  Make it four straight losses for me now during Thursday games.

Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills (-1.5)

Chris Johnson has played better in recent weeks, and the Bills showed improvement last week against the Jets.  But Buffalo still is without a solid running attack, and the Bills are also 21^st in the NFL against the run, which means that Johnson could have another effective week.  Because of this, in a tossup game, I’m taking the Titans to prevail on the road.

KP’s Pick: Tennessee

Kansas City Chiefs at Chicago Bears (-8.5)

Caleb Hanie could not lead the Bears to victory last week, and clearly, the Chicago offense has taken a slight hit without Jay Cutler in the lineup.  On the other side, Kansas City’s offense has been completely ineffective with the inexperienced Tyler Palko under center.  Todd Haley hasn’t named the recently acquired Kyle Orton as the starter, but if the Chiefs continue to struggle on offense, he could get into the lineup rather quickly.  Here’s banking that Orton will, and if he does, I think Kansas City will improve enough that they keep this game inside a touchdown.

KP’s Pick: Kansas City

Atlanta Falcons at Houston Texans (+2.5)

The Texans continue to roll, while also fighting off injuries to key offensive players.  The latest victim is backup quarterback Matt Leinart, who is out for the year.  Tyler Yates appears to be the next in line – and with him in the lineup – the Falcons could potentially focus on trying to shut down Arian Foster and the Houston run game.  With the Texans potentially being one-sided on offense, that leaves a clear advantage for Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Michael Turner and the Atlanta offense.  That’s why I’m going with the Falcons to earn a key road win in Houston.

KP’s Pick: Atlanta

Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins (-2.5)

The Dolphins have played solid football over the last month, winning three games, while also pushing both the Giants and Cowboys to the brink in close losses.  This game will also face off Michael Bush versus Reggie Bush in the run game, considering that Darren McFadden will be out again for the Raiders.  Oakland’s 32 sacks on the season is the 6^th best in the NFL, and the Raiders should be able to find a way to pressure Matt Moore all day, forcing mistakes.  These mistakes could lead to key game winning scoring drives by Carson Palmer.

KP’s Pick: Oakland

Denver Broncos at Minnesota Vikings (-0.5)

The Broncos are now 5-1 with Tim Tebow as the starting quarterback, and the defense has improved in recent weeks, too.  The Vikings will be without Adrian Peterson for the second consecutive week, meaning that the Minnesota offense will take a major hit.  It’s never pretty when Tebow is under center, but with a half-point spread, it’s just picking a winner – and at this point, I have a hard time picking against Tebow, especially with AP out of the lineup.

KP’s Pick: Denver

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-20.5)

Brady and the Pats need a three touchdown victory to cover against the Colts

The winless Colts fired their defensive coordinator, as well as benching Curtis Painter and naming Dan Orlovsky as this week’s starting quarterback.  Indianapolis has struggled on both offense and defense, and everyone knows that Bill Belichick will keep putting the pedal to the metal, especially after some tough losses to the Colts in the past.  Even with a spread as high as this one, I have a hard time believing that an Orlovsky-led Colts squad can stay within three touchdowns of Tom Brady and the Pats.  New England covers at home in a laugher.

KP’s Pick: New England

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5)

Again, the Bengals and Steelers face off in a key matchup of playoff contenders.  Over its last four games, the Bengals have kept each of their key games at a touchdown or less.  Andy Dalton, A.J. Green and the young Bengals have the talent to keep up with the Steelers, even on the road.  I’m banking on a fifth consecutive one score or less matchup for Cincy.

KP’s Pick: Cincinnati

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)

The Bucs have played better over the last month, most likely due to the return of LeGarrette Blount from injury, adding more balance to the offense.  Players such as Mike Williams have also had a more positive impact on the offense, too.  Cam Newton and Steve Smith will move the ball and put points on the board, but Carolina’s defense has struggled, and it’s a good bet that the Bucs will do enough to get back in the win column.

KP’s Pick: Tampa Bay

New York Jets at Washington Redskins (+3.5)

The New York defense has struggled, and not posted any numbers that we are used to seeing with a team run by Rex Ryan.  The Bills were able to move the ball and nearly knock off the Jets last week.  The Redskins have improved on offense over the last two weeks, getting productive offensive play since Santana Moss returned to the lineup, Rex Grossman returned as quarterback and Roy Helu finally was given extensive time on the field.  With all this in mind, it’s a good chance that the ‘Skins can keep this game at a field goal, especially playing at home.

KP’s Pick: Washington

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (+6.5)

The Browns have the league’s top pass defense, which means that Joe Flacco and the Ravens could face challenges moving the ball down the field.  But everyone knows that the Ravens will attempt to establish a run game with Ray Rice first.  Also, with the way the Ravens played last week against the 49ers, it’s a high probability that Colt McCoy and the Browns offense will struggle to move the ball – meaning that a touchdown victory by Baltimore is likely.

KP’s Pick: Baltimore

Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals (+4.5)

Tony Romo faces the Arizona Cardinals this week

The Arizona pass defense is ranked 25^th on the season and managed just nine interceptions.  This likely means that Tony Romo and the Dallas offense could have a productive day, even on the road.  DeMarco Murray has continued to put up solid numbers in the run game, further adding balance to the Cowboys’ attack.  Beanie Wells was spectacular last week, but continues to battle injuries.  Wells also will face a tougher defense this week, and could be left out of the offensive attack if the Cardinals fall behind.  Dallas covers on the road.

KP’s Pick: Dallas

Green Bay Packers at New York Giants (+6.5)

The Giants have been a popular upset pick by numerous prognosticators.  Eli Manning continues to have a great year, the Giants are at home, and likely could see Ahmad Bradshaw back in the offense.  However, last week, the New York defense was absolutely dominated by the Saints, and at times looked clueless on the field.  After going with my gut last week and taking the Lions to keep it close against the Packers, I refuse to make that mistake for a second consecutive week.  Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense has been too consistently solid, and a touchdown victory is a good bet on any day for Green Bay – and against any team.

KP’s Pick: Green Bay

St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-13.5)

Sam Bradford will be a game-time decision, and that could provide a major difference in the result of this game.  The 49ers were exposed last week, clearly struggling to protect Alex Smith against the Ravens last week.  This week, San Francisco is back at home, and looking to bounce back.  A victory is likely against a struggling St. Louis team, but the Niners have not had an explosive offense, and a two-touchdown win is a bit steep for my taste.  Take the Rams and the points.

KP’s Pick: St. Louis

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (-7.5)

This is a tricky line considering that a high-octane offensive game can likely result in two teams trading touchdowns.  But last week, the Saints were so explosive at home, dominating the Giants in all aspects of the game.  Kevin Smith is questionable and likely a game-time decision for the Lions.  If Smith doesn’t play, Detroit will likely be one-dimensional on offense considering that Maurice Morris hasn’t been consistent in the run game.  Also, Suh will be out for this game due to a suspension.  With this a likelihood, I’m banking on the Saints to continue its momentum from the previous game, and knock off the Lions by two scores.

KP’s Pick: New Orleans

San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5)

The Jaguars fired Jack Del Rio during the week, and have also announced that they will keep rookie Blaine Gabbert as its starting quarterback.  The Jags often play much better at home, and have had a solid pass defense throughout the season.  San Diego continues to struggle, but the Chargers have so much talent on both sides of the ball, that it’s hard to pick against them, especially when a field goal victory will get it done.  San Diego covers, but barely.

KP’s Pick: San Diego