Fantasy Football is upon us again – and that means it’s time for you to assemble your list of football studs, get your best trash talk lines ready and prepare to begin another season.

The majority of fantasy leagues are won on draft day – where one can outsmart other owners by not overvaluing some players, while also drafting the right sleepers at the right time.

Take the following players that I consider to be the seven best Fantasy Football sleepers of 2011:

If Matthew Stafford stays healthy, then all signs point to him being a legitimate Fantasy sleeper in 2011

Sexy Seven: Top Fantasy Football Sleepers for the 2011 NFL Season

Mario Manningham (WR – New York Giants) – Steve Smith is now in Philadelphia, leaving Manningham as Eli Manning’s clear #2 option behind Hakeem Nicks.  It also shouldn’t be ignored just how strongly Manningham finished the 2010 season, posting 16 catches, three consecutive 100-yard games and 4 TD’s over the final three contests combined.

Matthew Stafford (QB – Detroit Lions) – Everyone knows the injury history, but we all know the potential, too.  In two games during the middle of last season, Stafford threw for 450+ yards and had 6 passing TD’s.  The Lions are clearly a team on the rise and Stafford could be a solid backup QB addition to your fantasy team and if healthy, he may wind up as quality trade bait, or even your team’s starter.

Mike Sims-Walker (WR – St. Louis Rams) – With an average drafting position of 131.4 in ESPN Fantasy Football leagues, Sims-Walker is clearly a man flying under the radar.  It’s understandable considering how he plummeted down the depth chart in Jacksonville last season.  But St. Louis has a quality passing quarterback in Sam Bradford, they play in a weaker division and the Rams clearly needed a top wide receiver target for Bradford to throw to.  Sims-Walker could be that guy in 2011.

Ryan Mathews was a 2010 Fantasy bust, but KP thinks he'll bounce back this season

Plaxico Burress (WR – New York Jets) – Michael Vick was a redemption story seeking to prove he’s still got it after being away from the game due to jail time.  One hundred million dollars later, you know the drill.   Plaxico Burress is the latest edition of that story, and while it’s been a few years since he played in a regular season game, Burress clearly has the talent.  Four years ago, he had a 1,000-yard season with 12 TD’s.  His 2011 campaign is a question mark, but he would be a worthwhile gamble later in your draft.

Ryan Mathews (RB – San Diego Chargers) – Many team owners will be gunshy when it comes to Mathews, the rookie who was drafted early in 2010 and became somewhat of a bust (678 yards and 7 TD’s).  It’s important to note that Mathews scored five TD’s over the last four weeks of last season, and while Mike Tolbert will likely still take away some goal line carries, it’s clear that Mathews is still the primary back on a team that’s loaded.  Expect bigger things from him in 2011.

Jimmy Graham (TE – New Orleans Saints) – It’s no secret that the Saints have one of the more potent offenses in the NFL.  With Jeremy Shockey out the door, Jimmy Graham steps in as the primary tight end target for Drew Brees in 2011.  Better yet, Brees already knows that Graham is a reliable target, as he hit him for four touchdowns over the last three weeks of the 2010 season.

Ben Tate (RB – Houston Texans) – Tate’s average selection in ESPN Fantasy drafts is 130.9, clearly far down the list, and rightfully so, considering he’s currently a backup.  But that’s the key, as Tate is a solid runner that is backing up Arian Foster, who is currently dealing with a hamstring injury.  If Foster’s injury lingers or possibly gets worse, the doorway opens for Tate, who would be a solid late round add to either use as trade bait, or as insurance to those Foster owners.

The biggest key to success in Fantasy Football is not overvaluing certain players during your draft, because as most of us know, there are only so many players that emerge as surprise stars during the regular season and only so many owners that are willing to make trades.

Last season, I was able to hit on all but one of the players that I listed under the category of players being overvalued.

Here are seven players (most of which are running backs) that I feel are currently being overvalued in 2011 Fantasy Football drafts, plus a few alternative options that are being selected with similar picks:

Sexy Seven: Players Being Overvalued in 2011 Fantasy Football Drafts

* Note: Average Pick according to ESPN Fantasy Drafts as of 9/2/11 *

Arian Foster  (RB – Houston Texans) – Average Pick: 5.5* – Last year, I correctly labeled him as a 2010 sleeper, but this preseason, Foster is battling a hamstring injury and while he claims that he’ll play during Week 1, these types of injuries can linger and slow a player down throughout a season.  Not only that, but Foster’s breakout 2010 season (1,616 yards rushing, 16 TD’s) will be very hard to match in 2011.  Currently, Foster is being selected in the Top 5 of most Fantasy drafs.  The existing risks surrounding him indicate that there are better options to take that early.

Instead: Focus on Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy or Michael Turner

Roddy White (WR – Atlanta Falcons) – Average Pick: 14.0* – Don’t get me wrong, Roddy White is a stud and clearly a #1 receiver in the NFL.  However, with the drafting of Julio Jones, it would be wishful thinking for owners to expect White to match his 2010 stats (115 receptions, 1,389 yards, 10 TD’s).  Even White admitted to that on the Dan Patrick Show last week, when he said (about Jones), “He’s going to catch a lot of balls, so I probably won’t catch 100 balls this year.“  White also went on to say, “I don’t have a problem catching 80 balls”.  That’s likely true, but many fantasy owners might care, especially when taking Roddy White at the tail end of the first round, or early in the second.

Instead: Focus on Larry Fitzgerald, Greg Jennings or Calvin Johnson

Felix Jones (RB – Dallas Cowboys) – Average Pick: 44.5* – There is a lot of hype circling around Jones as a possible breakout candidate, what with Marion Barber moving on to Chicago.  While he clearly has the talent and could see more carries in 2011, it’s not a sure thing that his numbers will be worthy of a pick this high.  Jones saw more action during the second half of 2010 and from Week 10 on, he saw double-digit carries in every game, but failed to post a 100-yard effort, while only scoring one touchdown.  Those facts, plus the question marks that continue to surround the Dallas O-line, leave me thinking that Jones is not a Top 50 pick.

Instead: Focus on Ahmad Bradshaw or LeGarrette Blount

Many prognosticators are high on Dallas Cowboys RB Felix Jones, but KP still has his doubts

BenJarvus Green-Ellis (RB – New England Patriots) – Average Pick: 49.6* – “The Law Firm” is clearly a punishing runner in a potent offense.  Therefore, he will get his share of Fantasy points during the season.  But with Bill Belichick not afraid to use a multi-back system – and everyone knows how frequently Danny Woodhead was used in 2010 – it’s tough to make BenJarvus Green-Ellis a draft pick in the Top 50.  By this point in the draft, one should either be focusing on taking a talented receiver or perhaps one of the near-elite quarterbacks.

Instead: Focus on the aforementioned duo under Felix Jones or Jahvid Best

Beanie Wells (RB – Arizona Cardinals) – Average Pick: 57.2* – Beanie Wells falls under the same category as Felix Jones.  With the departure of Tim Hightower to Washington, Wells’ main competition from last season is gone, which could mean a heavier dose of carries.  However, it’s important to keep in mind that Beanie Wells has been an injury prone back throughout his young NFL career.  Last season, he posted double-digit carries in only five games and his highest output of the year was a mediocre 75 yards during Week 3.

Instead: Focus on Ryan Mathews or Shonn Greene

Jonathan Stewart (RB – Carolina Panthers) – Average Pick: 61.3* – Stewart is an interesting case.  Two seasons ago, Carolina relied heavily on its running game, highlighting a two-headed monster of DeAngelo Williams and Stewart.  Last season, each of the two backs dealt with injuries for part of the season.  In 2011, DeAngelo Williams signed an extension to be the primary back, plus there’s a new coaching staff in town and a rookie starting at the quarterback position (Cam Newton).  As a result, it’s not known just how significant Stewart’s workload will be, but it appears clear that it’s not worthy of a pick this high.

While she likely makes your real-life Fantasy team, Cedric Benson or Jonathan Stewart should NOT make your Fantasy Football team

Instead: Focus on a dual-threat like Percy Harvin.

Cedric Benson (RB – Cincinnati Bengals) – Average Pick: 67.6* – For starters, he’s serving a 20-day jail setence, which means he could be rusty when he finally sees the field.  Combine that with the possibility of rookie QB Andy Dalton being the Week 1 starter, and opponents will likely instead be focusing on the running game.  The Bengals appear that they will be one of the worst teams in the AFC this season, and as a result, don’t expect much from Benson – and therefore, he’s not worthy of a Fantasy pick in the Top 75.

Instead: Focus on Mark Ingram, Fred Jackson or Tim Hightower

The ‘Boys of Summer’ are back.

It’s Opening Day of the 2011 Major League Baseball season, leaving 30 teams with a clean slate and high hopes of making a playoff run.

Yes, including the Pirates.

Capping off the season preview, KP presents his 2011 MLB season predictions – from division winners, wild card berths, Cy Young award winners, rookies of the year and more.

Without further ado, it’s time to “Pick Your Knows”, the only time it’s not a disgusting habit:

Pick Your Knows: 2011 MLB Season Predictions

For a more thorough review on each team and division in Major League Baseball, check out KP’s previews of the AL East, AL Central, AL West, NL East, NL Central and NL West.

American League East

1) Boston Red Sox (Division Winner)

2) Tampa Bay Rays*

3) Baltimore Orioles*

4) New York Yankees*

5) Toronto Blue Jays

KP’s Take: I realize that I’ll take a beating from many on the Yankees, but I’m going to stick to my guns here.  This is assuming the current roster, and that New York won’t make a “balls to the wall” move for an ace.  If that happens, New York would move to the number two slot*.  Also:

• The Red Sox have balance, with strong pitching, a deep ‘pen and an offense that adds four bats that weren’t there last September: Carl Crawford (Tampa Bay), Adrian Gonzalez (San Diego), Kevin Youkilis (Injured) and Dustin Pedroia (Also Injured).
• The Orioles’ offense was revamped, there are five former closers in the ‘pen and the young pitching was dynamite under Buck Showalter in the final months of 2010.
• The Yankees’ starting rotation doesn’t impress me.  Garcia is an injury risk, Nova is unproven, Hughes’ velocity is down this spring and Burnett is very streaky.
• Many think the Rays will miss Matt Garza.  Rookie Jeremy Hellickson will make them forget, and there’s plenty of young pitching in the organization.
• The 2-4 slots* will be a game or two apart and likely all in the wild card chase, but the division is so strong, that it will beat itself up throughout the year.

American League Central

1) Minnesota Twins (Division Winner)

2) Chicago White Sox (Wild Card)

3) Detroit Tigers

4) Kansas City Royals

5) Cleveland Indians

KP’s Take: The key to the Twins’ season will be the health of Justin Morneau on offense and Joe Nathan in the bullpen.  If neither can stay healthy, the race gets tighter.  Also:

• The issues with Miguel Cabrera are too much of a question mark for me, and think it will also be a distraction for the Tigers.
• Chicago’s lineup will be brutal for opponents to handle, especially when playing at home.  If Jake Peavy can get healthy and pitch effectively, watch out.
• You should start seeing growth out of Kansas City’s young players – so much that the Royals will not finish in last place this season.
• Playing a large number of games against the Royals and Indians will help the AL Central earn the Wild Card over its stronger AL East opponents.

American League West

1) Oakland Athletics (Division Winner)

2) Texas Rangers

3) Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

4) Seattle Mariners

KP’s Take: Oakland’s pitching staff is the most underrated in all of baseball.  The A’s added a few complimentary bats to improve its offensive production, and if the young starting rotation can stay healthy, Oakland surprises and wins the division.  Also:

• The Rangers have question marks in the rotation: Cliff Lee is in Philly, C.J. Wilson has been battling hamstring issues and Tommy Hunter is out with a groin strain.
• The A’s had the best team ERA in the American League last season, and were the only AL team to crack the top 7 in baseball.
• The Angels could make a run in what should be a tight race, but the veteran bats with a potential for declining numbers make them tough to pick.

National League East

1) Philadelphia Phillies (Division Winner)

2) Atlanta Braves (Wild Card)

3) Florida Marlins

4) New York Mets

5) Washington Nationals

KP’s Take: The Phillies have question marks on offense, but still have arguably the best rotation in baseball – and assuming the team finds a way to acquire bats (if necessary) – they should be able to still eek out the division, but not by as much as people think.  Also:

• The Braves are a balanced team, with solid pitching and a legit offense.  Atlanta will likely rely on a pair of young arms at back of the ‘pen, plus Heyward and Freeman to help carry the offense.  Uggla should continue to hit, and Chipper’s health is key.
• The Marlins could be a darkhorse in this division.  They are very young, but have a ton of talent both on offense and in its starting rotation.  Keep an eye on them.
• The Mets will have too many issues with its financial problems, coupled with another slew of injuries, which are already affecting them this spring.
• The Nationals do not have the starting pitching right now, but still have a bright future when Strasburg returns, and when Bryce Harper makes his debut.

National League Central

1) Milwaukee Brewers (Division Winner)

2) Cincinnati Reds

3) St. Louis Cardinals

4) Chicago Cubs

5) Pittsburgh Pirates

6) Houston Astros

KP’s Take: I think Milwaukee’s offense is stellar, with bats such as Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Casey McGehee and Corey Hart.  The starting pitching has a nasty trio now that Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum have joined Yovani Gallardo.  The bullpen and defense could be a question mark, but there’s enough there to conquer this division. Also:

• Albert Pujols will be a force, but could his contract status become a slight distraction?  The Cards would say no, but I say perhaps it could.  The bigger issue in St. Louis will be the rotation without Wainwright.  His loss hurts.
• If it all comes together, the Cubs could make a run.  The talent is there, but Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Pena and Aramis Ramirez have been question marks in recent years.
• The Reds will be in the mix all season, but there were no major additions to the roster.  I’m banking on a few players to not have nearly the same impact they had in 2010.

National League West

1) San Francisco Giants (Division Winner)

2) Colorado Rockies

3) Los Angeles Dodgers

4) San Diego Padres

5) Arizona Diamondbacks

KP’s Take: The NL West should once again be a tight race that goes down to the wire, but with the pitching staff that the Giants currently have, it’s hard to pick against them.  San Francisco’s rotation is not far behind Philadelphia’s starting five – and I truly believe that.  Also:

• Colorado’s offense will be the best in the division by far, but the pitching staff remains a question mark.  Which Ubaldo Jimenez will show – 2010’s first or second half version?
• The Padres should have solid pitching again, especially at PETCO Park.  But missing Mat Latos for the beginning of the season could hurt.  San Diego will need both Tim Stauffer and Aaron Harang to pick up the slack.
• The Dodgers’ ownership situation is still a concern.  If all is still unresolved, what happens if the Dodgers need to make moves to improve the team?  That, plus players like Broxton and Kemp need to rebound from subpar 2010 seasons.

Teams That Will Surprise

American League: Baltimore Orioles

National League: Florida Marlins

KP’s Take:

Again, watch out for the O’s.  Over the 2010 season’s final two months, Baltimore had the best record in the AL East – and that was playing against divisional rivals that still had a shot at the playoffs.  Since, the Orioles have improved the offense and bullpen.

In the NL, I like Florida’s talent.  The rotation is solid with Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco, plus I think Javier Vazquez will rebound now that he’s out of the AL East.  Mike Stanton and Hanley Ramirez are stars, and the other youngsters should improve as the season progresses.

Most Valuable Player

American League: Adrian Gonzalez – Boston Red Sox
National League: Albert Pujols – St. Louis Cardinals

KP thinks Albert Pujols wins another MVP, then cashes in during the offseason

Others that I expect to be contenders include Kevin Youkilis (Boston), Justin Morneau (Minnesota) and Josh Hamilton (Texas) in the AL, plus Joey Votto (Cincinnati), Prince Fielder (Milwaukee) and Carlos Gonzalez (Colorado) in the NL.

Rookie of the Year

American League: Jeremy Hellickson – Tampa Bay Rays
National League: Freddie Freeman – Atlanta Braves

KP’s Take:

Others that I expect to be contenders include Zach Britton (Baltimore) and Kyle Drabek (Toronto) in the AL, and Brandon Belt (San Francisco) in the NL.

Cy Young Award

American League: Jon Lester – Boston Red Sox
National League: Roy Halladay – Philadelphia Phillies

KP’s Take:

Others that I expect to be contenders include C.C. Sabathia (New York) and Felix Hernandez (Seattle) in the AL, plus Cliff Lee (Philadelphia), Tim Lincecum (San Francisco), Zack Greinke (Milwaukee), Chris Carpenter (St. Louis) and Josh Johnson (Florida) in the NL.

2011 MLB Playoff Predictions

Red Sox OVER White Sox

Twins OVER A’s

Phillies OVER Brewers

Giants OVER Braves

KP’s Take:

Boston’s pitching and overall depth knocks out the White Sox, while Oakland’s inexperience does them in.  The pitching of Philly and San Francisco get it done in the NL.

Red Sox OVER Twins

Giants OVER Phillies

KP’s Take:

AL: The Twins have trouble in the playoffs, and the Red Sox are the complete package.  Boston’s pitching staff and relentless offense wear the Twins down, especially at Fenway.

NL: The top two pitching staffs meet.  By this point, Belt and Posey are cruising, while the Phillies have continued issues with scoring runs and protecting Ryan Howard.

2011 World Series Prediction

Red Sox OVER Giants in 6

KP’s Take:

By now, it’s a broken record, but on paper, the Boston Red Sox should be the World Series favorites.  Boston won 89 games last season, and that was while battling numerous injuries.  This year, with a healthy Youkilis and Pedroia, along with additions Crawford and Gonzalez, the Red Sox have a loaded offense.  The starting five is arguably the best in the American League, and the bullpen is very deep.  All in all, the Red Sox have the pieces in place to win it all.

KP thinks Kevin Youkilis and the Boston Red Sox will celebrate another World Series title

Now, it’s your turn – go ahead… PICK YOUR KNOWS!

The National League West division has an interesting mix of teams in 2011 – from the reigning World Champs (Giants), to a power-packed streaky team (Rockies), to the pitching team in the pitcher’s park (Padres), to an organization rebuilding (D’Backs) and finally, the franchise potentially strapped by an ongoing bitter divorce settlement (Dodgers).

TWHS brings you its NL West preview, set wilth statistics, analysis, breakdowns, Fantasy Baseball breakout candidates and more:

KP’s 2011 National League West Preview

Arizona Diamondbacks

Offense: There are plenty of talented bats – Justin Upton, Stephen Drew and Chris Young just to name a few – but the D’Backs struggled to hit for average last season, batting just .250 as a team.  At some point, the young stars need to step up their game, or Arizona will need to consider moving in a different direction.

Defense: Of the five divisional teams, the Diamondbacks ranked last (in 2010) among the NL West in both fielding percentage and defensive efficiency ratio.

Pitching: Arizona was 28^th in Major League Baseball last season with a 4.81 ERA.  The D’Backs worked hard to improve by acquiring multiple bullpen arms, both via trade and free agency.  Still, the rotation has no clear cut ace – and that will be a problem.

Fantasy Breakout Candidate: David Hernandez – J.J. Putz is listed as the D’Backs closer, and he seems to get hurt every year.  That means the door could open for saves, and Hernandez (acquired from Baltimore) is a young fireballer who has closed a few games in the past.  Call it a hunch, but Hernandez gets a shot during the season.  Don’t draft him, but keep an eye out.

KP’s Take: There is talent on the Arizona roster, but this season will bring more growing pains than gleeful gains.  The biggest issue will be the starting rotation, which has no clear cut ace – and until the D’Backs can add some more pitching depth, they will struggle to compete with the likes of the Giants and Rockies.

Colorado Rockies

Troy Tulowitzki and the Rockies should have one of the best offenses in the National League

Offense: The middle of the lineup featuring Troy Tulowitzki, Todd Helton and Carlos Gonzalez is arguably the most potent in the division.  The additions of Jose Lopez and Ty Wigginton should also help boost the team’s offensive performance in 2011.

Defense: The Rockies’ defensive efficiency ratio in 2010 was ranked low in baseball (25^th), but Colorado has its share of spectacular playmakers, most notably SS Troy Tulowitzki.

Pitching: The rotation is a tricky one to read.  Ubaldo Jimenez was as dominant as any pitcher during the first half, but faded fast during the final months of the season.  Jorge De La Rosa was resigned, and is a solid number two guy, but the question mark will be rest of the rotation, and how effective it can be.  Jhoulys Chacin does appear to have a bright future ahead of him.

Fantasy Breakout Candidate: Jhoulys Chacin – The 23-year old rookie dazzled in 2010, striking out more than a batter an inning (138 K’s and 3.28 ERA).  During his sophomore campaign, Chacin is slated as the #3 starter, and even when pitching at Coors Field, he should be considered a solid sleeper pick in many fantasy drafts.

KP’s Take: The Rockies should be the NL West team that gives the Giants the biggest challenge.  Colorado sports a potent offensive attack that plays 81 games in the most widely known hitters park in baseball.  The pitching staff has some question marks, and could wind up being the Achilles heel.  Over the last few years, the Rockies have been a very streaky team, especially in the second half so expect Colorado to be right there in the season’s final weeks.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Offense: Only three teams had fewer homers than the Dodgers in 2010.  The additions to improve the offense – Marcus Thames and Jay Gibbons, for example – likely won’t add much more pop.  The Dodgers will need its best offensive player, Matt Kemp, to regain his 2009 form.

Defense: The Dodgers are a solid defensive team and in 2010, L.A. was ranked in the top ten in both defensive efficiency ratio and fielding percentage.

Pitching: The starting rotation is the strength of the Dodgers, featuring quality arms Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda and Ted Lilly.  The bullpen is more of a question mark, and that includes closer Jonathan Broxton (his ERA rose above 4 last season).  If he struggles again, the job could be handed to Kenley Jansen, who has filthy stuff.

Fantasy Breakout Candidate: Kenley Jansen – He is not worth drafting, except for in NL-only leagues.  Jansen has nasty stuff, posting a 0.67 ERA in 27 IP (with 41 K’s) during the 2010 season.  If Broxton struggles in 2011, he could be handed the job.

KP’s Take: The McCourt situation is an issue, and not as a distraction for the team, but it could wind up hindering the Dodgers at the trade deadline if the team needs to wheel and deal to make a run at the playoffs.  That said, the rotation is pretty solid and there are bats in place for L.A. to compete in the division.  But they will need to be consistently solid to keep up with the Rockies’ offense and the Giants’ pitching.  A 3^rd or 4^th place finish seems more likely.

San Diego Padres

Offense: The weakness of the 2010 Padres was the offense, which struggled to consistently score runs.  Moves at the trade deadline didn’t help, as the team faded down the stretch and missed the playoffs.  San Diego has added a number of new faces to try and spark the offense, including Cameron Maybin, Jason Bartlett and Orlando Hudson.

Defense: The Padres had the best fielding percentage in baseball in 2010, and the team has improved its defense up the middle by adding Orlando Hudson and Jason Bartlett.

Pitching: PETCO Park is very much a pitchers park, and that was one reason the Padres had the second best ERA in 2010 (3.39).  The other reason was obviously the talent.  Mat Latos shined in 2010 (14-10, 2.92 ERA, 189 K’s), but he opens the season on the DL.  Tim Stauffer was also dynamite in the limited time he was in the rotation.  New addition Aaron Harang also will hope to right the ship after a subpar 2010 season.

Fantasy Breakout Candidate: Tim Stauffer – Last season, Stauffer pitched in 32 games (7 starts), posting a stellar 1.85 ERA in 82 2/3 innings.  This year, he will be the Opening Day starter due to Mat Latos beginning the season on the DL.  From seven starts to Opening Day starter, he’ll likely fall underneath a number of Fantasy owner’s radar.

KP’s Take: Last year’s Padres batted .246 as a team, third lowest in the majors.  New bats have been brought in, but not enough to be able to slay the cavernous outfield of PETCO Park.  The pitching has a chance to be real good again, but Mat Latos will need to get healthy and be as effective as last season.  It’s hard to imagine San Diego matching last season’s run.  Count on a battle with the Dodgers for 3^rd or 4^th place.

San Francisco Giants

Offense: This was a mediocre offense during the 2010 regular season – and certainly not one that scared opponents on the basepaths.  Having the least amount of steals in baseball (55), the Giants attempted to knock teams out with home runs and extra base hits.  Buster Posey provided a much needed boost as a rookie, and this year, many expect 1B Brandon Belt to do the same.  Miguel Tejada was brought in, but he doesn’t possess the same potent bat that he once had.

Defense: The Giants had the highest fielding percentage in baseball last season, but may take a slight hit in this department upon adding Miguel Tejada, who has declining range at shortstop.

Pitching: The San Francisco pitching staff not only led all of baseball in 2010 with a 3.36 ERA, but also in strikeouts with 1,331 – the only team to eclipse the 1,300 mark.  The rotation (Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Bumgarner and Zito) is near the overall talent and execution level of the Philadelphia Phillies.  Closer Brian Wilson is injured and will leave an early season hole in the back end of the bullpen.

Fantasy Breakout Candidate: Madison Bumgarner – Last season, the 21-year old spent time in the minors, and then was eventually called up, where he posted 7 wins and a 3.00 ERA across 18 starts.  He’s been very solid at a young age, and with his talent and control on the mound, he could be a solid fantasy breakout candidate in 2011.

KP’s Take: The reigning World Champs will again face a challenge in the NL West.  Don’t expect the Giants to run away with the division.  The offense could improve from last year, with Posey around all season, and Brandon Belt potentially providing a boost, too.  The pitching is the strength, and if Brian Wilson can get healthy, San Francisco should be the favorite to take the division crown once again.

Headlined by Tim Lincecum, the San Francisco pitching staff is one of the best in all of baseball

THE FINAL WORD

The NL West could see four teams in a tight race as the season winds down.  It looks like Arizona is likely to fall back in the pack, possibly around midseason.  The reigning World Champs from San Francisco have great pitching – and a staff that’s not too far behind the starting rotation in Philadelphia.  The Rockies have the bats, but the pitching staff could be what does them in.  The Dodgers have the McCourt situation that could strap them, and the Padres have a questionable offense playing in a pitchers park.  That leaves the Giants, who should avoid any post-title jinxes and take the division once again.

KP’s Division Winner: San Francisco Giants

KP’s Overall 2011 MLB Season and Playoff Predictions will be posted in the next few days…

The National League Central may wind up being the weakest division in baseball, but that doesn’t mean that it won’t be competitive.  As many as four teams appear likely to compete for the division race in 2011.

TWHS brings you its NL Central preview, set wilth statistics, analysis, breakdowns, Fantasy Baseball breakout candidates and more:

KP’s 2011 National League Central Preview

Chicago Cubs

Offense: The Cubs’ offense is headlined by a handful of aging veterans that have had declining numbers over recent seasons.  The list includes Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Pena.  Ramirez is, however, in his contract year, and Chicago could see a boost in numbers from him.  Pena could also thrive in the NL and at Wrigley Field.

Defense: Statistically, the Cubs were bad on defense last season – and sharing the basement (in fielding percentage) with both the Marlins and Nationals.

Pitching: Matt Garza (acquired from Tampa Bay in the offseason) is a great addition to the rotation.  The biggest key to the pitching staff will be Carlos Zambrano, and whether he can manage to keep his head on straight.  Logging a full, tantrum-free season will be key to Chicago’s success.  Carlos Marmol will need to avoid wildness as the team’s closer.

Fantasy Breakout Candidate: Starlin Castro – In 125 games last season, Castro batted .300 as a 20-year old – a very rare feat in baseball.  At the age of 21, it’s a safe bet that he can improve his game, and therefore, taking a flier on him in your fantasy draft would be a good idea.

KP’s Take: There is enough talent in place that the Cubs could surprise some people and make a run at the division crown.  But that’s a big “if”, considering the inconsistency with pitchers like Carlos Zambrano, and hitters such as Alfonso Soriano and Aramis Ramirez.  With the way this roster is laid out, Chicago could finish in first, or in last – but middle of the pack seems the most likely scenario.

Cincinnati Reds

Offense: Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips are the stars, while Jonny Gomes and Jay Bruce add some pop to the lineup.  Drew Stubbs is solid offensively, and the key may be Scott Rolen, who hasn’t played in 140+ games since 2006.  He’s talented, but always has the potential for an injury that can result in him missing at least a quarter of the season.

Defense: The Reds had one of the best fielding percentages in all of baseball, which obviously assisted the pitching staff at getting players out.  Expect more of the same in 2011.

Pitching: The rotation had some success in 2010, and will continue to rely on its young arms in 2011.  Edinson Volquez has struggled at times since returning from Tommy John surgery, and will need to become a rock in the rotation.  24-year old Travis Wood was great during his 17 starts last season, and will need to be solid again.  Aroldis Chapman continues to be a part of the bullpen, and it will be interesting to see what Cincy’s plans are for him.

Fantasy Breakout Candidate: Drew Stubbs – He’s not entirely a breakout candidate, but most casual fantasy owners do not know his name.  Consider how good Stubbs was in 2010: 22 HR, 77 RBI, 91 runs and 30 SB – now that’s a fantasy statline.  Don’t overlook him.

KP’s Take: The Reds were last year’s surprise, not fading down the stretch, and earning a spot in the playoffs.  Cincinnati returns a lot of its players, but made few improvements during the offseason.  The Reds will rely on its young and homegrown talent.  Votto, Phillips and the offense will have them heavily involved in a tight division chase – one that should go down to the wire.

Houston Astros

Offense: The Astros struggled offensively in 2010, where only the Mariners had a lower batting average.  The offseason acquisitions of Clint Barmes and Bill Hall won’t help improve that department.  Houston will need a boost from its young players, most notably 1B Brett Wallace.

Defense: In 2010, the Astros were a middle of the road defensive team statistically.  Houston hopes its new middle infield will increase the double play totals and lessen the error totals.

Pitching: Wandy Rodriguez (3.60 ERA and 178 K’s in 2010) is an underrated starting pitcher.  But other than Brett Myers, there aren’t many others to get excited about on this pitching staff.  The question isn’t who will step up, but more whether Wandy will be dealt by the trade deadline.

Fantasy Breakout Candidate: Brett Wallace – It seems like forever ago that Wallace was considered a “can’t miss” prospect.  Now he’s borderline becoming a journeyman after a few recent deals.  He’s only 24, and the Astros will give him a chance at first base, where the kid could find his stroke and mash some home runs.  Keep an eye on him.

KP’s Take: The Astros are looking to rebuild its farm system.  On paper, while there a few players that could break out and a few talented arms, it doesn’t appear that the Astros will be able to compete with the rest of what is shaping up to be a very mediocre division.  In fact, Houston may even finish below the Pirates this year.

Milwaukee Brewers

Offense: The Brewers stood pat on offense, and rightfully so.  The lineup is potent, with superstars Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun, plus streaky 2B Rickie Weeks, Casey McGehee and Corey Hart.

Defense: Only the Pirates had a lower defensive efficiency ratio than the Brewers in 2010.  Milwaukee should expect its pitching additions will help wash that out some.

Pitching: The Brewers added two key pieces to the starting rotation with its trades for Shaun Marcum (from Toronto) and Zack Greinke (from Kansas City).  Clearly, the Brewers are being aggressive and pushing for another playoff run.  With these two arms in place, plus with a healthy Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee has one of the better rotations in the National League.

Fantasy Breakout Candidate: Shaun Marcum – Returning from Tommy John surgery last year, Marcum went 13-8 with a 3.64 ERA… while pitching in the AL East. Now he heads to the National Legaue and the weak Central division, where he could really flourish.

KP’s Take: The additions of Marcum and Greinke make for a very strong rotation.  Greinke will be out for a week or two due to a rib injury, but afterward, each should excel in the National League.  The offense is potent and powerful.  Defense has been a weakness, but with the consistency of the bats and arms – coupled with how weak the division could be – the Brewers have what it takes to win the division outright, and make the playoffs.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Offense: The Pirates aren’t a team to make free agent splashes.  Therefore, pieces need to be added via trade or through its farm system. Finally, some of Pittsburgh’s players are paying off before getting too pricey.  Pedro Alvarez and Andrew McCutchen are examples.

Defense: Pittsburgh had the lowest defensive efficiency ratio in all of baseball last season.  With numerous young players in camp, it’s safe to say the coaches are preaching defense.

Pitching: Pittsburgh’s pitching was abysmal in 2010.  The Pirates were the only team with an ERA at 5 or above (they were exactly 5.00).  Little help has arrived, and it’s highly likely that this staff will struggle again in 2011.

Fantasy Breakout Candidate: Pedro Alvarez – At 24, Alvarez played 95 games and had 347 at-bats with the Pirates in 2010, hitting 16 HR with 64 RBI.  Imagine those numbers over a full season.  He just needs to work on his plate discipline (119 K’s).

KP’s Take: Pittsburgh’s young offense will keep the Bucs in games, but it’s the pitching staff that will likely have troubles again in 2011.  In a division with bats like Pujols and Votto, there will be days where the Pirates can’t keep up.  But there is talent in place, and it’s quite possible that Pittsburgh could find itself out of the cellar for a change.

St. Louis Cardinals

Will the Pujols contract situation distract the Cardinals during the regular season?

Offense: St. Louis was unable to sign Albert Pujols to an extension before the season, and now the weight of wondering if he’ll be gone will loom.  The Cards will say it’s not a distraction, but losing the game’s best player has to be.  The offense also features potent bats in Matt Holliday, Colby Rasmus and the newly acquired Lance Berkman.

Defense: The Cardinals were a solid defensive team last season, allowing less than 100 errors, while also turning 170+ double plays.

Pitching: Chris Carpenter was dealing with a hamstring injury, but it appears to no longer be bothering him, and he’ll be ready to pitch Opening Day.  Other team ace Adam Wainwright seems likely headed for Tommy John surgery, which is a brutal loss for the Cardinals.

Fantasy Breakout Candidate: David Freese – Freese batted .296 in 240 at-bats, but had limited power.  If he doesn’t improve much on power, he could still be a solid backup that could accumulate a lot of points in other ways while playing for a good offensive team.

KP’s Take: The loss of Wainwright hurts badly, and I believe that the Pujols contract situation will loom over this team throughout the 2011 season, whether they admit it or not.  St. Louis will have to hope that Carpenter doesn’t have any more hamstring issues, and the offense can make up for the loss in the rotation.  In a competitive division, the losses may prove to be too costly, leaving the Cardinals out of the postseason.

THE FINAL WORD

The NL Central should be the tightest race during the 2011 season, with potentially four teams battling for the division.  The Cardinals get done in by injuries and distractions, while the Cubs simply find a way – again.  In the end, the Brewers and Reds head to the final stretch neck and neck, and Milwaukee – with its new rotation featuring Gallardo, Greinke and Marcum – edges out Cincinnati, and wins the division.

KP’s Division Winner: Milwaukee Brewers

KP’s Overall 2011 MLB Season and Playoff Predictions will be posted in the next few days…